Can MySpace Survive Without PhotoBucket?

The ever-prolific Michael Arrington asks today, “Can PhotoBucket Survive Without MySpace?”

He cites a lot of statistics based on some leaked information about PhotoBucket’s revenue stream. But the gist of what he says is that most of PhotoBucket’s revenue has nothing to do with MySpace. He also makes a pretty bold statement, which is that a non-trivial number of users are going to pick PhotoBucket over MySpace.

It’s a bold statement that I agree with. Here’s why:

1. MySpace acted unilaterally to block the PhotoBucket content, which we all know pisses users off. To compound the problem, they’re not engaging with their pissed-off users in any real way.
2. MySpace turned a symbiont into a competitor when they blocked PhotoBucket. PhotoBucket has loyal, invested users who are now pissed off at MySpace.

This begs the question: can MySpace survive without PhotoBucket? In the short term, the obvious answer is, “of course.” But longer term, I’m not so sure. If MySpace continues the practice of regularly alienating third-party value adds for reasons that they don’t explain clearly, then I think their prospects for survival head south big time.

The future of social networking is in opening the platforms up to interoperability and cross-pollination. Users will gravitate toward sites that allow them to make connections with as many people as possible. The sites that win will embrace that fact and figure out how to monetize it rather than resisting and stonewalling. It’s really that simple.