Microsoft, Yahoo!, Search, Mobile Phones, Scoble & Fred Wilson

Yes I did just fit that all into a post headline. I don’t think it’s news to anyone at this point that Microsoft has proposed a buyout of Yahoo! for $44.6 billion.

I do happen to think that Robert Scoble has called exactly what Google is doing in it’s work to oppose the bid:

Google stands to gain HUGE by slowing down this deal. Every month longer that this deal takes is tens of millions in Google’s pockets. Why? Well, the real race today isn’t for search. Isn’t for email. Isn’t for IM. It’s for ownership of your mobile phone. I met the guy who runs China’s telecom last week in Davos. He’s seeing six million new people get a cell phone in China every month. So, every month that Microsoft and Yahoo will be stuck in some courtroom arguing out why this is a good deal means money in the bank for Google as they close mobile phone deal after mobile phone deal.

Scoble’s absolutely right, the place you want to be right now is in mobile phones. Between the iPhone and Google’s phone operating system, Windows Mobile is going to start facing some tough competition.

I also think that Fred Wilson is right about what Yahoo! should do: break into little pieces.

There’s another reason why I don’t think a purchase of Yahoo! makes much sense for Microsoft. I suspect that many of Yahoo!’s best services will languish under Microsoft’s ownership and that users will leave. It’s happening already under Yahoo!’s ownership to services like Flickr and Delicious and MyBlogLog. It will be worse under Microsoft’s ownership.

There’s a definite lack of innovation in the innovative services that Yahoo! gobbled up recently that Fred lists there. It’s disappointing, and I think it’s in some ways an inevitable side effect of being part of a larger company that needs more “organization.”

Things get done faster when there are fewer barriers, period.